The Prediction of Road Freight Demand in Pakistan under the Background of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Aimin Deng, Jiashu Feng

freight demand; ARMA model; multiple regression model; growth curve; combined forecast

With the continuous advancement of the "One Belt, One Road" and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor transportation infrastructure cooperation, the continuous increase in the density of Pakistan’s roads, and the upgrading of existing roads, road freight, which has always been dominant in Pakistan’s freight transport, will usher in faster development. To this end, this article explores its demand forecasting. This article mainly uses univariate forecasting ARMA model, Gompaz growth curve model, multivariate multiple regression model and a combination model of the three to forecast Pakistan's road freight demand (freight turnover). The results show that the growth of total fixed capital formation, GDP, highway mileage, and population will all cause the same direction change of road freight turnover; using a combined model is more accurate than using a single model to predict the results, so the combined model is used to predict the road freight turnover volume in 2020, 2025 and 2030 in order to provide a valuable reference for the investment decision of China and Pakistan in Pakistan's transportation infrastructure construction.

https://doi.org/10.31871/WJRR.11.4.10